London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
nikos.bosse [at] lshtm.ac.uk
Please read these instructions and terms carefully before using any of the crowdforecastr apps
The app is designed to collect forecasts from experts and non-experts. Predictions are made for weekly incident case numbers and deaths from Covid-19 in Germany and Poland. To facilitate this process we will create a user account for you, consisting of a username, a password and additional optional information you provide.
In order to reliably attribute forecasts to forecasters we need you to create a user account. To that end you must submit a username and password. While we would appreciate if you identified yourself (especially if you have professional experience in the field), you can also create a completely anonymous account. In the same manner, providing an email address is optional, but much appreciated. If you submit your email address we will send you a weekly reminder to make a forecast and may contact you in case of questions. In addition we ask whether you have any professional experience in the field to compare performance of experts vs. non-experts. If you have professional experience, please state your affiliation and a web link to your institution. Lastly you can opt in to have your username appear on our performance board. Alternatively, you can appear with an anonymous alias or not at all.
If you like you can have your username appear on our Performance Board. The current performance board is at and shows different performance metrics and diagnostic plots. Alternatively, you can either have your forecasts not appear or appear with an anonymous alias.
Responsible for the data policy
London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
WC1E 7HT London
nikos.bosse [at] lshtm.ac.uk
With your consent we collect
Your name Your email address Your username and password The forecasts you submit through this app
Your username and password will be used to create a user account that you need to access this app. Your username will appear on the performance board if you opt in.
Your name and your email address will be used to identify you and to contact you in case of questions and to send you a weekly reminder
Your forecasts will be used for research on forecasting as well as on Covid-19. Use cases will include, but are not limited to:
Sharing pseudonymised (forecasts will be attributed to forecasters using a random forecaster id) and/or aggregate forecasts with other research institutions, especially the European Forecast Hub. These research institutions use your forecasters to make accurate predictions about the future trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Sharing pseudonymised forecasts with the public through repositories on github.com
Sharing pseudonymised forecasts instead of completely anonymous or aggregate data is necessary to a) ensure that results can be reproduced and b) allow researchers to analyse aspects that need attribution of forecasts to (pseudonymous) individuals. Examples of these include: How forecasters learn over time, how much of variation can be explained by innate ability, how we can improve ensemble models by weighting forecasts according to experience etc.
Using pseudonymised versions of the forecasts for scientific publications about forecasting and/or Covid-19.
Sharing pseudonymised forecasts with the public
Under no circumstances will we share your personal data (your name and your email address) with anyone.
You yourself can decide what data you entrust us with. Once a user account is created, your identity will be pseudonymised and a random forecaster ID will be created that links all your forecasts to you. Your name and prive data will never be used or shared in public. The only exception may be the performance board: if you opt in, your username will appear on the performance board. All the forecasts as well as the corresponding forecaster IDs will however be stored on github and will be publicly accessible. While this is highly unlikely, it is not impossible that someone may find a way to link your forecaster ID to your identity, especially if you allow your username to appear on the public performance board.
Once you click submit, your data will be sent to a Google Sheet stored in a Google Drive folder. One sheet will hold your personal information (name, username, encrypted password, email address, affiliation, preference to appear on the performance board and random forecaster ID). Information in this sheet is used to manage your account and allow you to log in and make forecasts. A second sheet will hold your random forecaster ID as well as your forecasts, whether or not you are an expert and the name with which you appear on the performance board (either your username or a pseudonym like “Anyonymous Alpaca”).
Forecasts will be uploaded to Github, containing no private information you did not allow to share. In addition, the performance board will be updated using the name you provided in the app.
We will store the data as long as is necessary to conduct research on forecasting and Covid-19. We will store your personal information (name and email) as long as may be necessary to contact you with questions and updates. We expect to delete all personal information no later than the end of 2022.
Pseudonymised versions of your forecasts may be stored indefinitely, e.g. as part of a publication.
You can, at any point, request deletion of your personal data. To that end, please send an email at firstname.lastname@example.org.
The information contained in this website is for general information purposes only. The information is provided by the Epiforecasts group at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine and while we endeavour to keep the information up to date and correct, we make no representations or warranties of any kind, express or implied, about the completeness, accuracy, reliability, suitability or availability with respect to the website or the information, products, services, or related graphics contained on the website for any purpose. Any reliance you place on such information is therefore strictly at your own risk.
In no event will we be liable for any loss or damage including without limitation, indirect or consequential loss or damage, or any loss or damage whatsoever arising from loss of data or profits arising out of, or in connection with, the use of this website.
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